SAFAID Insights · Federal Budget · FY 2026-27

The Budget
Lens.

Pakistan collected more tax than ever last year. Rs 8 of every Rs 18.8 trillion spent went to debt before a school, hospital, or road saw a rupee. This page shows you exactly where your money went, and lets you try to do better.

Drops 12 June 2026 Outlay Rs ... Growth target 4.0% (IMF: 3.5%) Status ...
FY27 confirmed figures. Budget presented 12 June 2026 by Finance Minister Aurangzeb.
Background:
01

Your Taxpayer Receipt

Most shared

Move the slider to your salary. Two things surprise almost everyone: where the money goes, and how few people pay at all.

Rs 2,400,000
Approx Rs 200,000/month
Rs 0
Income tax
0%
Effective rate
Rs 0
You keep
Top 3% of filers

At this income you earn more than most of Pakistan's 6.5 million active tax filers, and more than roughly 99% of all working-age adults. Most of the country is outside the tax net entirely.

Spending breakdown

Your income tax is divided proportionally across federal spending categories based on the FY27 budget allocation. If debt servicing takes 41% of total expenditure, Rs 41 of every Rs 100 you pay goes there. Your rupees are fungible once inside the consolidated fund. This proportional allocation is the most honest representation available of where your contribution lands in the fiscal picture.

Progressive slabs vs effective rate

Pakistan uses a progressive slab system. You only pay the higher rate on income above each threshold. FY27 expanded slabs from 6 to 8 with reduced rates from Rs 2.2m upwards. A person earning Rs 3.6m pays 1% on the Rs 600k-1.2m slice, 11% on the Rs 1.2m-2.2m slice, and 20% on the Rs 2.2m-3.6m slice. Maximum annual relief is Rs 207,000 for earners above Rs 7.2m. The 9% surcharge on annual income above Rs 10m has been abolished.

Data source

Slab structure uses the confirmed FY27 Finance Bill (8 slabs, effective 1 July 2026). Source: Finance Bill 2026, Tax Sahulat. Budget allocation percentages are from the confirmed FY27 Budget in Brief (Finance Division, 12 June 2026).

Govt of Pakistan

Tax receipt · FY27
YOUR TAXRs 0
02

The Budget by Sector

Breakdown

Expected FY27 allocations, largest to smallest. Toggle real vs nominal to see what inflation does to the story.

CPI used: 8.2% FY27 vs FY26

Tax-to-GDP trajectory

Each +1 percentage point adds roughly Rs 1.3tn in revenue capacity. Pakistan has not crossed 11% in a decade. IMF target for FY27 is 12.5%.

03

What Changed Since Last Year

New

Budget is live. Nine confirmed shifts, now in effect. Tap to flip · Swipe to explore

04

What the Budget Actually Gave You

Wins

Ten confirmed concessions from today's speech. Real relief, real people.

Confirmed 12 June 2026 · Budget Speech · Finance Bill 2026

05

The Innovation Lens

Tech

Does this budget actually invest in Pakistan's technology future? Six axes, scored 1 to 5. Tap any axis label to see the detail.

06

Where the Rupee Comes From and Goes

Most shared

The two-sided journey of a single rupee. Tap any line to expand the sub-breakdown.

For every three rupees the government spends, one is borrowed.
Not earned. Borrowed.
Your children will pay it back, with interest. Borrowing is the largest single source of government revenue, bigger than income tax, bigger than sales tax.

Sources

Uses

07

The Debt Clock

Live

Debt servicing is the single largest line. Watch the metre run.

Rs ...
National debt · live estimate

Since you opened this page: Rs 0 added.

Total public debt Rs 81.4tn (1HFY26), 68.5% of GDP. Growing approx Rs 220,000/sec. Debt servicing Rs 8.054tn confirmed for FY27 (approx Rs 255,000/sec). Source: Budget in Brief Table 10.

...
Interest / second
...
Debt per citizen
...
Debt per filer

IMF Primary Surplus Tracker

0%FY26: 3.5% ★IMF target FY27: 2.0%3%

The primary surplus excludes interest payments. Achieving it is the single most-watched number for IMF programme continuity. FY26 achieved a record 3.5% primary surplus, the highest in Pakistan's history. FY27 target is 2.0% of GDP. Four consecutive years of primary surplus.

68%
Domestic debt share (Rs 54.5tn)
32%
External debt share (Rs 26.0tn)
~2 yrs
Average domestic maturity
...
Estimated FY27 domestic rollover
~$27bn
External debt stock (USD)
3.5 yrs
Avg external maturity
Gulf conflict premium

The budget is built on 4.0% GDP growth and 8.2% average inflation. Both are already looking optimistic. Monthly inflation hit 10.9% in April 2026, up from just 0.3% in April 2025. The IMF puts FY27 GDP growth at 3.5%, below the budget's 4.0% target, citing Middle East conflict and energy price pressures. Every missed growth point costs FBR roughly Rs 300-400bn in revenue and puts the primary surplus at risk. The IMF identified GCC exposure as Pakistan's most acute external vulnerability in May 2026. Source: IMF, Topline Securities, The Patriot.

Oil price impact bands ($/barrel)
Under $75Tailwind. Current account improves, petroleum levy overperforms, growth target achievable.
$75 to $85Baseline. The budget is calibrated here. No surprises.
$85 to $100Pressure. Each $5 above assumption costs Rs 80-120bn. Growth target starts slipping.
$100 to $120Gulf premium zone. GDP undershoots by 0.5 to 1 point. FBR misses by Rs 300-400bn. Primary surplus at serious risk.
Above $120Crisis. Current account blows out, reserves draw down, rupee under pressure, inflation re-accelerates. Budget framework no longer viable.
08

Be the Finance Minister

Interactive

What you do with 37 rupees decides what kind of country this is. Debt and defence are locked. Go.

0
Remaining of 37
0
Extra borrowing
67.0%
Projected debt-to-GDP
0/100
SDG livability
Primary surplus target at risk. IMF programme compliance in question.

Consequences of the extra borrowing

Rs 0bnadditional debt (each of 100 rupees equals Rs 175bn of the current expenditure budget)
+0 bpsestimated SBP policy-rate pressure (approx 12 bps per rupee of extra deficit)
Rs 0bnnew tax revenue needed instead (approx 0% of GDP)
$0bnFDI required to offset the external pressure

Calibrated to FY27 nominal GDP Rs 143.6tn (Budget in Brief), FX rate Rs 290/$, current expenditure base Rs 17.5tn. Illustrative, not a forecast.

09

The Happiness Lens

Talker

Pakistan is 109th globally and happiest in South Asia. Five Pakistan-specific drivers. Does the budget move them?

10

The NFC Award

Structural

Before the federal government spends a single rupee, 57.5% of the divisible pool goes to the provinces. This is the constraint behind all federal borrowing.

...
What the federation keeps after NFC transfer and debt servicing. This is the entire discretionary budget. Defence alone exceeds it.

The 7th NFC Award expired in 2015. It has been extended annually since because no new consensus has been reached. The government pushed to exclude customs duties from the divisible pool; that dispute was not resolved in this budget and the Award remains on annual extension.

11

The Regional Scoreboard

Talker

Tap a metric. Watch the origami fold.

Source: World Bank and central bank data, 2024 to 2025.

12

Access and Inclusion

SDG lens

A budget is also about who gets to participate.

13

Market Reaction Map

Investor view

Budget is live. Super tax cut from 10% to 8% for most sectors, banks and fertilizer excluded. Tap measures to stack exposure. Watch where the pressure lands when markets open Monday.

KSE-100 sectors and companies

PMEX commodities

Analytical map only. Not investment advice. Consult a licensed advisor before any decision.

14

The Investment Climate

New

Reserves, donor inflows, and the SIFC pipeline are the real test of whether Pakistan's fiscal turnaround holds.

SBP-held reserves
$17.2bn
May 29, 2026 (+49% YoY)
Expected to reach $18bn by June end. Import cover 2.75 months. Source: Economic Survey FY26.
Total liquid reserves
$22.7bn
SBP + commercial banks
Only the SBP portion is available for sovereign debt repayment. Crossing 3 months import cover would be a qualitative shift in external credibility.
Remittances FY26
$33.9bn
Jul-May, record $4.3bn in April
On track to exceed $36bn full year. More than three times FDI. Monthly record April 2026. Source: Economic Survey FY26.
FDI growth YoY
+32.3%
First 4 months FY26
Energy FDI up 120%, other sectors up 41%. Off a very low base: FY24 total FDI was $863m, near a 15-year low.
Tax-to-GDP
10.6%
FY25
Each +1 point adds approx Rs 1.3tn. IMF wants FBR at Rs 15.3tn in FY27. Pakistan has not crossed 11% in a decade.
Tax expenditures
Rs 5.8tn
Revenue forgone FY25
The hidden budget. Exemptions and concessions nobody votes on. Watch whether FY27 trims the figure.
SOE drag
Rs 900bn+
Annual losses
SOEs return 1% on assets. PIA privatisation, DISCO unbundling, and Pakistan Steel resolution are the competitiveness tells on 12 June.
Import cover
2.75 months
May 2026 (Economic Survey)
IMF benchmark is 3 months. Crossing it would represent a qualitative shift in external credibility.

SIFC pipeline + CPEC 2.0: committed vs landed

The China visit added $7.54bn in agreements. Alibaba, CATL, StarCharge. But only $2bn of the whole pipeline has actually landed.

Fiscal risks

Gulf conflict premium
Rs 300-400bn
Revenue at risk per percentage point of GDP growth missed. The IMF puts Pakistan growth at 3.5% against the budget's 4.0% target. Full oil-price impact bands in the Debt Clock section. Source: IMF, Topline Securities.
Provincial agriculture tax shortfall
Rs 430bn
Agriculture is 24.6% of the economy but its effective tax rate is just 0.3% (IMF). Provinces must collect agricultural income tax at standard rates under IMF conditionality. Punjab and Sindh have delayed. The full Rs 430bn is at risk.
Debt servicing: Rs 8.054tn confirmed
46% of outlay
Budget in Brief Table 10 confirms debt servicing at Rs 8,054bn, the single largest line in the budget. With the policy rate at 11.5%, any renewed tightening or rollover at higher yields pushes this figure up further. Source: Budget in Brief FY27.

Your Budget, Summarised

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